Finding value can be easier said than done in fantasy football to say the least. One thing is for sure, where there is value to be found, there must be players that are overvalued. You cannot always go by the basic ADP, it can come off as misleading. Some players are drafted purely on their name, past history, or just plain hype. Other players are uber talented, but they cannot stay on the field for full seasons. Stay away from these traps that the community makes because everyone needs to be ranked/drafted somewhere. You are playing fantasy football this year, the stats from last year mean nothing to you anymore. Let's get into some of the most overvalued players, in my opinion, in this year's draft.
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Rob Gronkowski
Gronk Spike! Everyone knows the name, face, and spike but those are from years past. He is no longer the fantasy machine he once was. We did a mock draft on the latest episode of the podcast, Gronk was selected in the 6th round. As of writing this, he has not played in a football game in 589 days. In his career, he has had 16 injuries, forcing him to miss 24 full games and even more partial games. Drafting Gronk anything sooner than the 10th round as a hopeful pick, you could lose your league chasing old numbers. He does have Tom Brady still throwing him the ball in Tampa, but Brady may not have ever had this type of talent at WR in at least a decade. Chris Godwin is a top level receiver who happens to play in the slot, aka Brady’s go to position. Last year, Godwin took 62.5% of snaps out of the slot. Gronk has value as a late round flier, but he will not win you a fantasy championship.
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Evan Engram
Another Tight End, another injury prone player. Evan Engram, or who JPhilly calls “Hospice”, has missed 14 games in three years. He is a great talent but he has yet to play a full season. Once again, you want players to be on the field, not on your IR. He has had 2 concussions, 2 MCL Sprains, a pulled Hamstring, and had surgery on his foot this off season. Reports have said he will be ready to play, but how many games will he last this year. According to Sports Injury Predictor (not sure how they come up with their numbers), they have Evan Engram listed as at 59.9% chance of missing at least 2 quarters, which isn’t a good thing. Unlike Gronk, he has the upside to finish in the top 5 at tight end. In Engram's rookie year he played 15 games, in said games he had 64 receptions for 722 yards and 6 TDs. In that season, he finished as the TE5. I don’t draft players that cannot stay healthy, and neither should you. I especially don’t draft an injury prone Tight End in the 5-6th round. Stay away if you can, or buyers beware.
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Will Fuller
Now I will be honest with you, I have been on this train ride before, and I can tell you how it ends, a train wreck. Will Fuller is a bullet train that is too fast for the tracks, or in his case his legs. Fuller has missed at least 2 games every year since he has come into the league, and has missed a total of 22 games in his career. I get it, we have been talking a lot about players with injuries, but this isn’t even what worries me. He is a “boom or bust” type of player, always looking for the deep ball to take to the house. Last year, Fuller only had three touchdowns, all of which came in one game against the Falcons, who happened to be atrocious on Defense last year. That same game, he had 14 catches which was 28% of his receptions on the season. Are you willing to draft a guy who will get all of his volume in one or two games, and the rest of his games be completely irrelevant? Me neither. He is currently being drafted at the end of the 7th round to the early 8th round. Anyone who is in my leagues that are reading this, I will pay you to take him there because I will make my money back when I win my league.
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Derrius Guice
Next on the list of injury prone players that have somehow climbed up rankings, Derrius Guice. Since being drafted in 2018, he has played a total of FIVE games. Somehow Guice is going in the 6th round in every mock draft I have been a part of, and it leaves me scratching my head time and time again. In those 5 games he has played in, Guice only had one productive game against the Panthers. Carolina also happened to be the worst in the league last year in yards per carry, and even then, he broke out a 60 yard run to boost his stats. Guice was highly touted coming out of LSU, but his time is running out if it already hasn’t. There is a new coaching staff coming in, the running back room is filled to the brim with semi talented players, and he has not shown he deserves the job as the RB1. He would need to show that he can outperform guys like Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber, Bryce Love, or the rising hype of Antonio Gibson (Ron Rivera compared him to CMC). Gibson can be used all over the field, AP is one of the GOATs, I just do not see Guice breaking out from the others on this team to win the job outright to become worth a 6th round pick.
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Nick Chubb
This wouldn’t be an overvalued players list without at least one stud. There is no denying his talent, but he has competition. Kareem Hunt is also a stud of a running back, and he has been given a second chance to have a career. I talked about why Hunt is a great value in my last article. I won’t go into absurd detail on why Chubb is overvalued but these are the main reasons why I’m passing on him in the 1st round and early 2nd round of drafts. The Browns have a new HC in Kevin Stefanski who has no ties with either one of these backs. He may roll out a 50/50 split to start the season and then see who fits his system better. Chubb is not the same caliber pass catcher that Kareem Hunt is. The last reason I believe he is being overvalued is when Hunt came back from suspension last year, Chubb's attempts per game went from 20 carries to just under 15 carries. Sometimes volume is more important than talent, so if there is a split in the backfield, Chubb would not finish as a top 10 RB, you heard it here first.
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Daniel Jones
At first, I was a believer in year two Danny Dimes but as time went on, and rosters settled, I grew weary. The Giants have one of the hardest schedules in the league as far as defensive match ups. In the first 3 weeks of 2020, the Giants play the Steelers, the Bears, and the 49ers all top 5 defenses. Not to mention, they play a much improved Eagles secondary twice, a young and talented defense in Washington, and they play the Ravens in Week 16. I was hopeful Jones would fix his fumbling issues (18 last season, 5th worst single season of all time) but it seems with these match ups, he could be dropping the ball all year again. On the bright side, he will have an improved O-Line, and a healthy Saquon Barkley. Barkley is an important weapon in the offense, but he will see more carries, and he will be the top option in the offense. Not to mention nobody knows what kind of offense Joe Judge will be bringing into New York this year. It will not help that we will most likely not have a preseason to work out some of the kinks in the offense. Love the talent, hate the schedule and the unknowns in the offense. He is quickly falling on my draft board and in my rankings.
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