Fantasy football season is upon us. Leagues are drafting, group chats are talking smack, players are getting hyped up because of training camp. Not all of the players will live up to that hype. Some of the hype is based off of what they did last year not what they will do this year. Every off season, teams add players, lose players, change coaches, offenses change, and every year is different. Maybe a player had a great season because they played bad rushing defenses, maybe they stepped up because of an injury. Whatever the case may be, there are players that will bust. Busting has been an overused term for players that are just flat out bad. The players on my list are players that I am avoiding in my drafts because of their ADP being way too high for how they will produce. These are players that I have concerns about their volume, health, scoring opportunities, etc. It doesn’t mean they will be completely useless, most of these players will be on a team, just not my team if I can help it.
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Melvin Gordon
Melvin Gordon signed with the Broncos this off season in hopes for a new beginning. The Broncos already have a split backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay is a back to back 1000 yard rusher, who averages 4.9 ypc as an undrafted free agent. In Gordon's career, he has only rushed for 1000 yards once, and has averaged under 4.0 ypc in 4 out of 5 years. Personally, I never thought this signing made any sense. Lindsay statistically is the better back. Not to mention that Gordon has only played one full season without an injury or holding out. Royce was used heavily in the passing game last year, so maybe Gordon gets some of those targets. I really don’t see how this is anything less than a RBBC especially with Gordon's health issues, I’d stay far away from this.
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Leonard Fournette
Fournette had a year he will never forget. He was 4th in targets to the running back position at 6.67 targets a game, only behind CMC, Austin Ekeler, and Tarik Cohen who are all pass catching studs year in and year out. It will never happen again, I will literally put my money on it. Jay Gruden has come to town and he brought his favorite receiving back with him, Chris Thompson. He has stolen touches from his fellow backfield mates, since before Fournette was at LSU. He is a more reliable pass catcher as well as a better route runner. Is that not enough for you? Fournette has never played a full season, and has never had a nose for the End Zone. His best came in his rookie season where he had 9 rushing TDs. I’m also a firm believer that Minshew will be more loose with the ball than he was last year, for more info on that check out the Sleeper article.
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Aaron Jones
Now to my most hated running back in football, Aaron Jones had an insane season last year. Week in and week out he made me look like a moron on the FFD Podcast. Jones finished as the RB2 in 2019 with 314.8 fantasy points under PPR format. Of those 314.8 fantasy points, 42.8% of said points came from scoring TDs. It is unrealistic to think that he can repeat 16 rushing touchdowns in 2020. Now this is one of those cases that I am not doubting he will be a starter in fantasy, I am worried about his TD regression and about his usage. With the addition of AJ Dillon, he now will be splitting his carries to a third RB after Jamaal Williams stole carries from him all year last year.
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Courtland Sutton
I have been getting a good amount of slack for this one. Courtland Sutton the player? Great talent. Sutton the 2020 fantasy player? I’m worried about his volume. The Broncos offense will have new faces all over the field this year. They drafted Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, brought in Melvin Gordon, and 2nd year Noah Fant could all eat into the targets for Sutton. Only one receiver outside of Sutton had more than 50 targets, DaeSean Hamilton with 52. Now that there are legitimate options being brought in, I expect the ball to be spread out a little more evenly that it has been so far. If his targets are around 100 on the year, and his catch rate of 58% from 2019 doesn’t see positive regression, it will be hard to see him as a top 15 WR this season. Once again in real life, Sutton is a stud, in fantasy, I am staying away.
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AJ Brown
The Hype Train is real with this young man. He is a very talented receiver in open space, I call him the YAC king. But 43 receptions last year is simply not enough for me to be taking him in the 4-5th round of a fantasy draft. You can take Will Fuller who will have the same stats, 4 rounds later. This is another guy who the natural talent doesn’t translate to fantasy football. He had an insane 12.5 yards per target last year, and had over 15 fantasy points per target. Both of these numbers are not likely to repeat itself. I would not consider him a bust if he wasn't going so early in drafts, but it is as if people have lost their minds with his ADP.
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Austin Hooper
The Browns gave Austin Hooper too much money for something that David Njoku could've done for them. Austin Hooper was a product of his environment in Atlanta, a team that notoriously is a pass heavy offense. People will say, Stefanski’s offenses are TE friendly. No, it just looks like they are. Where did Kyle Rudolph finish in 2019 with a healthy starting running back in the offense? TE15. Would you draft a Tight end that won’t finish as a starting tight end? Me either. Now let’s add in all of the weapons the Browns have: OBJ, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, David Njoku. Sounds to me like a recipe for disaster.
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Jared Cook
Ah, the Touchdown machine that we call Jared Cook. I’m going to keep this one small, just like his chance to be a reliable option in 2020. The Saints brought in veteran Emmanuel Sanders this off season to help Michael Thomas not be the only person able to run a route on this team. Jared Cook had 43 catches last year while scoring 9 TDs, for those not good at math, he had a 13.9% Touchdown Rate. It’s simply not sustainable. I will die on this mound of being a Jared Cook truther, and I will not draft him under any circumstance. I just don’t believe he is a top tier TE like everyone else believes, I really believe he is a below average football player at best.
FUck Melvin