Week 4 came and went unlike that pesky Coronavirus...seriously, enough messing with my sports and gambling fixes. It was another solid plus week for us here gambling the FFD picks, finishing with a 3-2 record and if you know anything about gambling, coming out even is great but coming out ahead is just lovely. Though some of the picks missed (I’m looking at you Dallas, you miserable losers), we made a nice little bit of coin which just further cements myself as one of the hottest gamblers out there right now.
We learned a good bit this past week about some of these teams. The NFC East...rather see some MACtion playing on Sunday nights then these four dumpster fires. The elite of the NFL continue to find ways to win ball games though it helps when Brian Hoyer is handing out early Christmas gifts. Green Bay continues to display a juggernaut offense and looks ready to run away and hide from the majority of the NFC while the GOAT himself turned back old’ Father Time with a 5 touchdown performance following a Jameis like start to the game. But Week 4 is in the books now so lets get to the picks you’re all here for and make you some money.
(All picks are based off of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Carolina Panthers +1.5 against the Atlanta Falcons
Look, by now if you haven’t realized that the Falcons just plain stink, you’re more out of it then Joe Burrow taking a shot from Malik Jackson. The Falcons, while having some nice offensive weapons are simply a bad football team. Dan Quinn is feeling the burn under his loins but lifetime is 18-33 (35%) ATS when the games favorite. Atlanta’s defense currently is giving up the second most points per game (34.5) as well as the second most passing yards against per game (341.5) and Teddy Bridgewater happens to be coming off his best passing game of the season. Speaking of Bridgewater, over in Raleigh, those Cardiac Cats are just playing some good ole fun football. They aren't going to be winning the Super Bowl this year but they are playing spirited, competitive football each week. Mike Davis has filled in exceptionally well for Run CMC and the trio of Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, and DJ Moore are going to be having a field day against that Big 12 defense, I mean Atlanta defense. Photo: USA Today
Cleveland Browns +1 against the Indianapolis Colts
Pop quiz: What AFC North team leads the league not only in rushing yards per game but also turnover differential. No, not the FRAUDS playing in Baltimore but those lovable losers in Cleveland. Don’t look now but those Brownies might be sneaky good. Cleveland currently is averaging 204.5 yards per game on the ground. Yes, I know Nick Chubb is out for the foreseeable future but how nice is it to roll out a former 1300 yard rusher. That running attack won't miss a beat and will set up the play action and bootleg pass game nicely for Baker, where he finds himself throwing at his best without the hulking lineman blocking his line of sight. The Colts are 3-1 but does anyone actually think they are good? I sure don’t. Photo: Cleveland.com
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 against the Houston Texans
Maybe the Texans look better without the dictator that was Bill O’Brien, or maybe they just aren’t a good football team. I think it’s a little bit of both but historically, over the past five seasons, teams are 2-6 ATS the week after firing their coach. This season, between Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz, we see two of the presumed elite young QB’s in the league struggling mightily. Could it be because of BOB’s play calling...sure, or it could be Watson singing the DeAndre blues without his former number one receiver. Minshew Mania in Jacksonville is real and these Jags who came in expecting to tank are not afraid of anyone out there. Gardner is a gamer and is 5-1 ATS when an underdog of more than 4 points proves that he will not fold under pressure, unlike those tables the Bills Mafia kamikaze slam through. Side note, could you imagine Gardner Minshew with the Bills Mafia...dude would be a LEGEND. Anyway, while I wouldn’t be shocked that the Jags win outright, take the points and call it a day.
Los Angeles Rams/Washington Sentinels, I mean Football Team Over 46.5
No, unfortunately Shane Falco will not be coming off the pine for Washington with this QB change but we will see Kyle Allen who displayed a mild degree of success running Riverboat Ron’s offense in Carolina. Washington’s offense isn't all that great but you have to think the familiarity between coach and QB will lead to more than the 19.8 points per game Dwayne Haskins Jr. was putting up during his four starts. With Antonio Gibson and Scary Terry McLaurin, I expect the Washington offense to at least get into the endzone a couple times. On the other side of the country, these Hollywood Rams are starting to resemble the teams from 2017-2018 that conjured up memories of the greatest show on turf. Currently averaging 397.2 yards per game as well as 26.5 points per game, Sean McVay has his squad working the play action passing game exceptionally well leading to big numbers for the trio of Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee. Throw in an improving running attack led by Darrell Henderson and the bruiser Malcolm Brown and we have the makings of an easy over.
And without further ado, our highly anticipated Lock of the Week is…
Seattle Seahawks -7 against the Minnesota Vikings
Is there any doubt left that the Seahawks are the class of the NFC? Chef Russ Wilson is looking like an early heavy favorite for MVP, throwing for 16 touchdown passes over the course of 4 weeks (tying a NFL record held by none other than Peyton Manning). This season, Pete Carroll’s team is 4-0 against the spread and currently is averaging 35.5 points per game as well as the number 3 ranked offense in all of football. Meanwhile, over on the Viking ship, the Purple People Eater defense is giving up the most yards per completion (12.4) as well as a putrid 298.1 passing yards per game. These birds are going to One, Two Step their way into the endzone more than enough on their way to a 5-0 start to their season.
Parlay of the week:
Philadelphia Eagles/Pittsburgh Steelers Over 44.5
Miami Dolphins +9 against San Francisco 49ers
Cleveland Browns +1 against Indianapolis Colts
YTD Individual Game Totals: 3-2
YTD Lock of the Week: 1-0
YTD Parlays: 1-0
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