Welcome back you Degenerates to the number one College Football gambling article you will find, brought to you by the number 1 gambling podcast out there, Betting the Diagonal. Holy heck, it is Week 4 already. Where has the time gone? We are officially in football weather season now which means Saturdays will be spent on the couch or in a bar passing libations around with fellow college football connoisseurs. Enough yapping, let’s get at it and watch some football and maybe, just maybe win a little money.
LSU -2.5 vs. Mississippi State: 12:00PM at Mississippi State
As a man of the people, I pride myself on integrity and honor and would be remiss if I did not tell my people that I have flipped on this game. Originally I was on the Bulldogs ML but, after doing plenty of research, have flipped my position and now like the Tigers in this spot. This is a massive revenge game for LSU as they were thoroughly embarrassed by Mississippi State last season, allowing a SEC record 623 passing yards in a home loss. Coming off a disappointing 5-5 season following a title run, LSU is still looking to find their footing and may have found an answer to their next guy after Joe Burrow. Max Johnson has settled in nicely as QB1 throwing 11 touchdowns to only two interceptions in the early going of the season and has led LSU to an average of 36.7 ppg while averaging 389.33 ypg of offense.This game is going to be decided through the air as neither of these teams can run the ball. LSU is ranked 120th in the nation in rushing offense while Mississippi St. is ranked 125th in the nation. Conversely, both of these teams have top 25 rush defense in the nation. This plays into LSU’s favor as the Bulldogs will have to throw against a talented secondary led by the elite All-American and likely top 10 draft pick Derek Stingley. Mississippi State is coming off a tough loss that was stolen from them by the hands of Memphis and is poised for a let down game following all those emotions. LSU is 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a straight up win as well as 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS loss. The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a straight up loss and head to head, the Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 matchups against the Bulldogs. All I hear is GEAUX TIGERS!
Oregon -28.5 vs. Arizona: 10:30PM at Oregon
I’m sorry Wildcat fans, your team is embarrassingly bad and Jedd Fisch is a terrible Head Coach. Arizona is coming off an embarrassing 21-19 loss to FCS Northern Arizona, after being a 26.5 point favorite. Arizona's win total for the season was set at 1.5 with one win assuredly being counted against the Lumberjacks. With that off the table, it is very possible Arizona does not win a game for the second straight season. Arizona’s biggest weakness is being extremely weak on both lines of scrimmages and it will not help that All-American and projected 1st overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux possibly returns. Even without him, Oregon has a very strong defensive line that can put consistent pressure on whoever Arizona throws under center. Oh, and speaking of line of scrimmage, Oregon is 28th in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 209.3 ypg while averaging 38 ppg. While Oregon has a really good offense, Arizona does not, coming in at 120th in the nation in scoring offense, and putting up a pedestrian 16.3 ppg. Oregon is firing on all cylinders this season and should be able to coast to a playoff spot this year after dismantling their toughest opponent of the season, Ohio State a couple weeks back. Oregon is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of 20 points or more. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS loss. Arizona is 1-12 ATS in their last 13 following a straight up loss and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The Ducks fly high here and put up some big offensive numbers against arguably the worst team in all of college football.
Michigan -20.5 vs. Rutgers: 3:30PM at Michigan
Are the Wolverines, dare I say...back?!?! The jury is still out on that one but they have played extremely well to start the season. Right now, Michigan is averaging 514.7 yards per game while also averaging 47 points per game with Cade McNamara under center and he has looked more comfortable with each passing week.This is a battle of undefeated teams, as both teams are 3-0 but Rutgers wins aren't all that impressive, coming against the likes Temple, Syracuse, and Delaware...not exactly powerhouse schools with a hotbed of talent. Michigan is vastly superior when it comes to talent on the field and talent they have faced this season. The offense has been clicking for Michigan, to the tune of the number 1 rushing attack in football, averaging 350.3 rushing yards per game and which can control the game while averaging over eight yards per carry. On the Rutgers side, the defense will be tested as they will likely be without Cornerbacks Chris Long and Max Melton, both who were charged with assault this past week which will put additional strain on this under matched defense. The Michigan defense has not seen too much strain on it thus far, allowing 11.3 points per game thus far through three games. The last time Rutgers beat Michigan, Lloyd Carr was still the coach and since then, Michigan has won the last six meetings against Rutgers with a combined score of 304-79. Michigan is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite as well as 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home game against a team with a winning record.
UCLA/Stanford Over 58.5: 6:00PM at Stanford
This is the game I am most excited to see in the afternoon/evening slate. Will the Visor himself come out with a vengeance following a tough 40-37 loss to Fresno State last week or will UCLA’s run come to an end. While I believe UCLA will win this game, and cover for what it's worth, I am more excited to be the total in this game, specifically the over. UCLA is coming off a game in which they allowed 40 points and 569 yards of offense. Still put up 37 points for themselves while totalling 395 yards of offense. Stanford is giving up 210.7 rushing yards per game through three games whereas UCLA is one of the top rushing attacks in the country led by explosive dual threat Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson who has UCLA averaging 39.7 ppg and allowing 25.7 ppg while on the other side, Stanford is averaging 30.0 ppg and allowing 25.0 ppg but there’s an asterisk with that offensive number for Stanford. Those numbers are brought down from the time Jack West was under center. Since Sophomore Tanner McKee took over under center, the Trees are averaging 40.1 points per game. The former four star recruit has been phenomenal passing thus far, completing 71% off his passes and being amongst the leaders in the Pac 12 in all passing categories. The total is certainly in reach for these two squads and between them, the over has hit in 7 of the last 10 games between these two teams while Stanford themselves has hit the over in 10 of their last 15 games. Bruins overs are hitting in their last 4-1-1 in their last six road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Florida -18.5 vs. Tennessee: 7:00PM at Florida
How quickly we forget that Florida was a successful two point conversion away from taking down the reigning champs and number one team in the nation Alabama. With Emory Jones under center, the Gators are averaging 35.3 points per game while averaging 553 yards of total offense. When they ride with Anthony Richardson, they have another explosive player under center who is arguably the better passer of the two right now. My Vols have the makings of a good team. They have a very strong running defense that has allowed opposing teams an average of 54.3 yards per game on the ground, and the secondary has been no slouch either allowing 265 yards per game. Tennessee will need all levels to be clicking if they want to stop the Gator attack, which is carried by a rushing attack averaging 336 yards per game right now after three games. A likely scenario here is that the Vols return Joe Milton under center who had been dinged up the last few weeks...for Vols fans this is a nightmare scenario. Milton has been incapable of getting the offense going whereas his back Hendon Hooker has significantly more capable of leading the offense when he is under center. The Vols have been struggling to cover in conference games, going 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as well as being 6-20-1 in their last 27 games following a straight up win of 20 points or more. The Gators, coming off that tough loss to ‘Bama, are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.
Boise State/Utah State U70: 12:00PM at Utah State
If you are among the awesome folk who listen to the Betting the Diagonal podcast (be sure to like and subscribe), you’ll remember that both Billy and I were perplexed by this game. The game was pushed up to a 10AM mountain time start (12P EST) which in some weird way, changed the total from where it opened up at 63 points to now 70. This is a wild occurrence and the under is now clearly the play. 70 is a wild number. For two teams to hit that number, both offenses need to be firing on all cylinders which I am not nearly confident enough in happening. If you know me, you know I love some MWAC action and I certainly won’t be complaining about the earlier kickoff but these are college kids. College kids that are used to kickoff happening later in the day allowing them to recuperate after a long night of partying. I expect these two teams to come out a little sluggish to start the game. Had it stayed at 63 points, I probably would have bet the over but the value for the under is too good now. Of late, Boise State has allowed 16.5 points per game to its last two opponents and following an ATS loss, the under is 5-1 in their last six matchups.
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