We are officially halfway through the NFL season. Damn, where has the time gone. It feels like just yesterday we were waiting with eager anticipation for opening night kickoff between the Bucs and the Cowboys. Thankfully, there are still plenty of games left to watch as well as plenty of games left for us to gamble on. At the halfway point, we are sitting at a .500 winning percentage but are trending positively. After a brutal start to the season, we have not seen a losing week in a few weeks and that is big for the boys back home. It does feel freakin’ awesome to be winning bets once again and I know the fans are loving the extra units in their pockets as much as I have been over the course of the last few weeks. If you’re reading this now, you got to watch an awesome Thursday night game between the Jets and the Colts that proved to be a shootout. If that game is any indication of the week to come, where your boy went 2-0 in his picks for the game, we are in for yet another banner weekend. It’s 8:57AM as I am wrapping up this article so cheers to some good gambling (responsibly) this weekend...I’m going to go get a beer.
New England Patriots -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers:
Remember a couple of weeks ago when the Panthers played the Jets we were saying how Sam Darnold saw “ghosts”...welp, look who he’s going up against this week, the team that previously had dominated Darnold led offenses when he was a member of Gang Green. The Patriots come into this game on the fringe of a playoff run but improving each week under the guidance of the legendary Bill Belichick and his rookie protege Mac Jones. Each week, Mac has gotten a little bit better which is exactly what you want to see from a rookie Quarterback. You know who we haven’t seen get much better...Sam Darnold. I fully expect Darnold to get benched in this game and the PJ Walker era begins in Carolina. This Patriots defense, while not as strong its previous iterations, still packs a punch and can create plays in the back end as evidence by their 10 interceptions this year, only one off the pace of the league leading Buffalo Bills. Trends will tell you the Patriots are 0-5 ATS against the Panthers in their last five but I strongly believe that trend will end this week. One team is improving each week while the other has gotten worse and worse. I think that trend continues and Belichick has his team ready to perform on Sunday once again.
Cleveland Browns/Cincinnati Bengals OVER 46.5 Points:
Buckle up kids, this one is going to be fast and fun. These two AFC rivals have high powered offenses with their strengths being opposite one another. For those in the Dog Pound, the Brown’s are averaging an NFL-best 161.1 yards/per game and have a league-high 14 rushing TDs. Their counterparts, the Bengals have the league's seventh-best rushing defense and had given up 100+ yards the three weeks prior until last week against the Jets who they held to 41 yards. The Jets made up for the lack of a run game with the short, screen passes which is something the Browns passing attack does exceptionally well. The Bengals with such a high octane offense should have no issue moving the ball as long as they protect Burrow, who has been sacked 20 times in the early going of the season. If they can protect him, the Browns will need to put up points as they play catchup throughout the game. Cleveland came into the season with a vaunted defense but has faced three teams in the Top 10 in league passing, and gave up 33 points to the Chiefs, 47 points to the Chargers, and 37 points to the Cardinals. Cincinnati comes in with the 11th ranked passing attack at 264.5 yards per game but is coming off an effort over 300 yards and is averaging 27.5 points per game. The total has gone Over in seven of Cleveland's last eight games against teams with a winning record, six of the Bengals' last nine games as favorites, and five straight head-to-head meetings in Cincinnati between these two AFC rivals. The over is 4-1 in the Browns last 5 vs. AFC North and for the Bengals the over is 13-6-1 in their last 20 vs. AFC.
Dallas Cowboys -9.5 vs. Denver Broncos:
I hate this so much. Most of the country hates this so much. The Cowboys are...gulp...good. I hate to say that but what matters most is if they are good when it counts, at the books. The Cowboys continue to be an ATS darling, coming into this game with a perfect record of 7-0 ATS. Oh, they are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Broncos are the opposite of a covering darling, only being 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. It may be the Mile High Club, but even the Broncos aren’t celebrating that high above sea level. The Broncos defense that was once feared has lost nearly all of its punch, bringing in a bunch of backups into this game to rush a much healthier Dak Prescott after the trade of Von Miller and with Bradley Chubb questionable at best for this game. To get pressure on Dak, Denver will have to thin out the rest of their defense by bringing extra attackers, a bold strategy to bring in against Dallas and all of the weapons they have on the offensive side of the ball. The Cowboys have had no issue scoring this season, putting up 32.1 points per game this season and go up against a defense who may have only given up 17.1 points per game this season, but has played a multitude of offensively challenged teams to date. Dallas’s defense may not be all that but should have no issue limiting a Teddy Bridgewater led offense that lacks the explosiveness to keep up with the Cowboy attack. Rock with the Cowboys to win handily over this undermanned Bronco roster.
Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs. New York Giants and OVER 46 Points:
First off, let's start this with our heartfelt condolences for the family who is dealing with the loss of a loved one due to a car accident that included former Raider Henry Ruggs. If you are ever out drinking, do not put yourself behind the wheel. Ask for help or call Uber/Lyft. The boys at Betting the Diagonals DM’s are open and we are happy to help keep everyone safe. No back to the game on the field as this Raiders team that is coming off of a bye week has been through the ringer the last few weeks, from the firing of Jon Gruden to racially insensitive emails to this week's events. The Raiders defense has been coming on extremely strong over the course of the last few weeks, getting constant pressure from the likes of Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue which aids a secondary that is allowing 222.7 yards per game through the air, the ninth-best mark in the league. A banged up Giant offensive line will likely struggle to keep Danny Dimes upright once again which plays right into the Black Hole’s hand. On the offensive side of the ball, faux Green Day frontman Derek Carr has played lights out football this season, throwing for 2,269 yards this season, a number good for fifth best in the league as well as a touchdown to interception ratio of 12:5. Both of these teams have the ability to put up points, with the Raiders scoring 25.7 points per game and the Giants putting up 19.5 points per game. Recently however, the Raiders have scored 67 points in their past two games while the Giants, despite major injuries, have managed to score 42 points over their last two contests. The Giants are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games as well as 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog.For the total, the over is 9-3 in Raiders last 12 games overall as well as 39-19-3 in Raiders last 61 games following an ATS win.
Baltimore Ravens/Minnesota Vikings OVER 50 Points:
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Long gone are the days of the elite Baltimore defenses of the early 2000’s or the Mighty Minnesota Purple People Eaters. No, no one is confusing these defenses for the past versions of themselves as they have both struggled mightily to stop the opposing offenses. The once vaunted Baltimore defense is ranked 25th in the league, giving up 382.3 yards per game while the Viking defense is not much better, ranked 20th in the league at 367 yards per game allowed. The Raven pass defense is their biggest issue, already allowing three 400+ passing games this season and allowing a league worst 296.1 passing yards per game. They will more than likely struggle to contain a Viking passing attack featuring Pro Bowlers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. The Baltimore offense has been rather effective behind Running Back turned Quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is averaging a career high 277.6 ypg while on pace for his third-straight 1,000-yard rushing campaign. Lamar leads an offense of Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews, and a bunch of no name veterans that have put up 26.7 points per game. The over is 10-2 in Vikings last 12 games following a straight up loss and is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games following a ATS loss. Additionally, the over has hit in five straight road games for the Vikes and seven of the last nine home games for Baltimore.
Last Week Record: 3-3
Year To Date Record: 40-40-1
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