Don't cry that it's almost over, smile because it happened. NFL, it may be Week 13 but I love you so damn much. Our tables are getting close to being set not only for the holidays but also for the NFL playoffs as both the AFC and the NFC are looking more and more wide open by the second. The teams we thought were overpowered and going to run away with their divisions have been toying with the mediocre and giving them just enough belief that they can sneak their way into the playoffs. Those teams have also made a knack for playing down to their competition and if they are not careful, a team with nothing to play for is the most dangerous of teams. For those of you reading this, your focus is to read between the tea leaves and find the best picks and values to give you a little extra guap for the holiday season. Well lucky for you, you have someone like me to help guide you through your life. I’ll be accepting thank you’s at this time...Enjoy this six pack, and a six pack of great tasting, less filling responsibly.
Los Angeles Rams -12.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Oh how the once presumed mighty have fallen. The Rams have come back to Earth a bit the last few weeks and are now facing the possibility of missing the playoffs outright. A date with the lowly Jaguars figures to be the perfect get right spot for LA. The last three losses for Los Angeles saw them down by more than 10 at varying points which resulted in the entire playbook being helter skelter. LA should be playing from in front this whole game which will allow them to control the pace of play and rhythm. While Stafford has not looked like the MVP candidate it seemed early on, he is dealing with an injury and this should provide him a soft spot to land as Trevor Lawrence should have a difficult time going against a very opportunistic Ram defense led by defensive player of the year candidates Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. For the Jags, no matter how often Urban Meyer says he isn’t going back to college, the rumors are there thus the distractions are there which could lead to a less prepared Jaguar team. Plus, the Jags are just a pretty crappy team. For the trends, the Rams are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers and OVER 50:
These two teams are going to be a lot of fun to watch for a very long time and maybe, just maybe the start of a budding rivalry. This game is going to be won on the ground for the mighty Bengals as troubled, but All-Pro running back Joe Mixon is coming off a dominant 165 yard/2 touchdown performance and now lines up across the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 145,3 yards per game. If the Chargers are to sell out to stop the run, that will allow breakout sophomore year Quarterback Joe Burrow to hook up with his freshmen sensation Ja’marr Chase out wide to have a day as the Bolts will be without one of their top defensive players, Asante Samuel Jr. While the Chargers offense is putting up 24.8 points per game, the Bengal defense is very opportunistic and Trey Hendrickson has gotten good pressure on Quarterbacks all season. The Bengals have been able to put up 28.1 points per game thus far this season while the Chargers give up 26.6 points per game, a number that has them 28th in the league.
Trends favor the jungle cats as the Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC as well as 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers and UNDER 44:
The return of this classic rivalry brings us two teams at a crossroads. For the Steelers, they look to be just about cooked with Big Ben barely standing these days without a cortisone show. Down 95 in Baltimore, the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team that is the Ravens show flashes of being a real contender but also go through deep stretches of looking like a mediocre team. The Steelers run the risk of being without defensive player of the year candidate TJ Watt who is in COVID protocol and are coming off a game where they gave up 165 yards on the ground, something the Ravens will look to duplicate this week with Lamar struggling to throw but his legs as good as ever for a running back. Baltimore should have little trouble slowing down a Pittsburgh offense that has struggled the last month, specifically under center and in the backfield as Najee Harris and co. have only put up 3.4 yards per carry the last month and the Steelers have struggled to the tune of 20.4 points per game this season. These two rivals often look to beat one another up, regardless as to where they are playing as the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. A divisional battle usually leads to a beat them up kinda game especially between these two teams and with their offenses struggling, this has the makings of a smash mouth grind it out battle. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC North and the Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North. The under is 7-3 in Steelers last 10 games as a home underdog while it also is 9-3 in Ravens last 12 games following a straight up win.
New England Patriots/Buffalo Bills OVER 43:
This is quite possibly the game I am most excited for this week as the winner of this one will be in pole position to take a highly competitive AFC East crown and just might represent the AFC is the Super Bowl. The Patriots come into this one on an absolute heater with Mac Daddy Jones slinging the pigskin all over the field and the duo of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris putting pressure on the defense on the ground. The two of them are putting up an average of 144 yards per game on the ground over the last six during this winning stretch of football and figure to attack the Bills from whistle to whistle. The Bills are a weird team and have stretches of dominant offensive football followed by a cold spell and then are heating back up once again following a 31-6 drubbing of the Saints last week. Does Josh Allen have a late season MVP charge in him? It’s quite possible. These are the two of the very best defensive units in the league, with the Patriots allowing only 15.8 points per game and the Bills just one spot behind them with 16.5 points per game. Conventional wisdom would tell you to take the under in this spot but in a divisional matchup with two offenses cookin’ right now, trends tend to favor the over. The over is 16-6-1 in Bills last 23 games following a straight up win while it is also 4-0 in Patriots last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. I'm thinking that this could end up being a 27-24 kinda game so I’ll play that all day long.
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