Welcomeeeeee to the ThunderDome Degenerates!!! Tonight, we have a heavy weight battle of the best picks you will find brought to you by the good fold of Betting the Diagonal and Fantasy Football Podcast, the number one place to find all of your football fixes. Y’all...I hope you’ve been tailing your boy here cause the kid is fuckin’ HOTTT! We’re talkin’ 14-5-1 in the last three weeks, kinda hot. The kinda hot you’re looking for when you go to the bar on a Saturday night. All the critics can say is stay hot ponyboy and that’s exactly what I plan on doing.
Buffalo Bills -13.5 vs. Miami Dolphins:
Which mammal would win in a fight, a buffalo or a dolphin? On land, a buffalo would trample a dolphin, but in the water a dolphin would drown a buffalo. Well, for the Miami Dolphins, it's a shame this game is being played on land. Miami’s defense ranks 26th in yards per play allowed, 31st in points per game allowed, and 32nd in yards allowed per game and is going up against arguably the most explosive offense in the league coming off a bye week after losing a tough game on the road at Tennessee. The Bills offense is going to want to come out and light up the Dolphins team to reestablish themselves as the dominant team in the NFL.
Miami has lost eight of their last nine games against Buffalo, including each of their last six games by an average margin of 20 points. The Dolphins have also only held the Bills to under 30 points one time in seven games for Josh Allen against them and the young gunslinger has 22 total touchdowns (passing and rushing) and a passer rating of 108.1 against the Dolphins in his career. Buffalo’s number two ranked scoring offense has been consistent basically all season putting up 33.8 points per game while the Dolphins boast a defense that we already discussed struggles with and an offense that is putting up a lowly 18.1 points per game, good for 29th best in the league. The Dolphins have not covered the spread in their last four games while the Bills are 4-2 ATS on the season. Those crazy Bills Mafia faithful have covered the spread in each of their last five games against teams with losing records and they are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Miami while playing in the frigid temperatures of upstate New York.
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings and OVER 55 Points:
Yes, Dak is a question mark but you know what...WHO CARES!!! Grab Dallas at this number ASAP as the number is only this low due to uncertainty behind Dak Prescott’s playing status as he is nursing a calf injury. Coming off a bye week and some much needed rest, the Comeback Player of the Year favorite is tracking to play and goes up against a Minnesota defense that is allowing only 230.2 yards per game through the air and 22.8 points per game. While their numbers may not be awful, they have not played an offense to the caliber of Dallas’, an offense that is averaging a league best 34.2 points per game and 295.6 yards per game through the air. Dallas is the lone perfect team ATS remaining this season at 6-0-0 ATS this season and the Cowboys have covered the spread when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites in four of four games this season. Conversely, Minnesota has only managed a 3-3-0 ATS record in their games played this season. These two teams have very strong offenses, with Dallas averaging 34.2 points per game and the Vikings putting up 24.5 points per game but coming off a performance of 34 points. The Quarterbacks in this game will drive the total as Dak Prescott has 1,813 pass yards for Dallas, completing 73.1% of his passes and collecting 16 touchdowns and four interceptions this season while his counterpart Kirk Cousins has compiled 1,769 yards while completing 69.5% of his passes and tossing 13 touchdown passes with two interceptions this season. The Vikings are getting wins over teams that they should be beating but have not done so convincingly, taking a poor Panthers team to overtime and beating a 0-7 Detroit Lions team by a last second field goal. Five of Dallas’s six games played have hit the total of 55 points scored between the two teams. The Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games while the over is 6-3 in the Vikings’ last 9 games. Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its past seven at home.
Atlanta Falcons -3 and Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 Points:
The Panthers offense has been the definition of anemic, putting up 20.9 points per game but over the course of the last three they have only scored an average of 16.3 points per game. With CMAC injured still, the Panthers have leaned heavily on Sam Darnold who has regressed significantly after a hot start to the season and even saw himself get benched for Head Coach Matt Rhule’s former college pupil PJ Walker. Atlanta’s offense has been better of late with Kyle Pitts really coming on but they are still averaging only 22.5 points per game and very much struggle to run the football. The strength of the Panthers is their defense and the Falcon offense is not nearly explosive enough to offset the differential in a significant way. The under is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points and the under is also 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a ATS loss. When these two teams link up, the under is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings.
Denver Broncos and Washington Football Team Over 44.5 Points:
Oh, what could have been for these once prolific defenses. Injury woes and poor execution have doomed these two units in their pursuit of the playoff in the 2021 season but makes this ripe for a sneaky high scoring match up. The quarterbacks...well they leave A LOT to be desired. Teddy “Two Gloves” Bridgewater and Taylor Heinecke don’t exactly instill the most confidence in you as a fan but where there is garbage, there can be gold. For Washington, it seems like Scary Terry can put up numbers regardless of the Quarterback throwing to him and even with a talented Denver secondary lining up across from him, he should find his way to get his as he always does. For the Broncos, the two headed monster that is Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon has provided decent contributions and Teddy has done a good enough job game managing, well at least enough to keep Drew Lock off the field. The is 9-4 in Broncos last 13 vs. a team with a losing record so look to take the over here in a game that you wouldn't necessarily think of.
To Get Every and All Picks, Follow @BettingDiagonal on Twitter
Last Weeks Record: 3-3
Season Total: 35-36-1
Comments