Welcome back you Degenerates! It’s been a long time since I have gotten to talk about DFS with anyone, usually nobody wants to hear my ranting and raving about players. Today I will be attempting to break down my thought process when it comes to finding players to pick for my lineups. Outside of the obvious in looking at team matchups for fantasy positions, I will dive a little deeper into the different catalysts I use to find an edge. First let’s talk about what exactly we want and need out of the players we are looking for. We want to find the best fantasy value for the price of a player. The ideal number we are looking to hit is at least 2.5x the price value, I really look for 3x personally, but that is more hard to reach at times. I usually focus more towards cash games for the readers because there is more opportunity for you guys to win money. With all that said, lets get into it!
Stack Opportunities and When and When Not to Use Them
Stacking players is when you have multiple players from an offense in your lineup along with their QB. It is usually QB, WR, WR but in some scenarios you can use the TE. Stacking players give you the opportunity to receive double points whenever the players connect with each other. I use this when I see a one sided game vs a team with a very weak secondary. Stacking a game is when you have multiple players from one game, for example: Baker Mayfield, OBJ, Tyreek Hill for Week 1. Usually the game stack consists of 3 or 4 players, and I use it to fade the higher QB prices, and in this scenario, I'd rather pay half price for Baker, with the larger upside while still owning shares of Tyreek or Kelce. I strictly use the game stacks for games that have high totals and I believe will be shootouts.
How Gambling Lines Affect My Decision
Gambling lines come more into play than some of you may think. I look for games that have higher game totals, naturally. More importantly, I look for games with higher game totals and less than a 7 point spread. A closer game with a higher total means that both teams can put points on the board, and the game will be competitive. This works especially well when looking for WRs, QBs and even TEs. If the spread is greater than 7, I look to see the prices of the running back for the team that is the favorite. Games with low totals tend to be run heavy offenses, so that is where I look to find RB values.
Playing Single Game DFS and How Do I Pick a MVP/Captain
First and foremost, your MVP should be a QB, RB, or WR under almost all circumstances. I’d be willing to go with Kelce or Waller as well under the correct conditions. The decision is who to choose from the two teams, I lean heavier on the favorite. Last year, the Top 1% of winners had a Captain/MVP from the team that was the favorite to win just under 75% of the time. I also look on various sites to see potential ownership of a player for that day because sometimes fading the big chalk works out when picking a Captain/MVP. If the total for the game is high, I try to get both QBs, 3 WRs, and then at least one running back. For the opening game this season, however, I believe that the Bucs Defense has some value and will be low owned, so I took both QBs, 2 WRs, a RB, and then the Bucs D. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it does not.
Picking a Value Defense
First things first, picking a Defense should be the last choice you make. You don’t build a DFS Lineup by saying “Which Defense will get 2 interceptions”. I either settle with the bottom defenses by deciding who has the better turnover opportunity, aka, who plays the weakest QB/OLine. If I have extra cap left over, That’s when I attack a top defense with an average matchup in the mid tier. Only time I ever spend up for a Defense would be when the mismatch is so out of control, like Buccaneers vs Texans I would have to consider it.
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