What a matter of two weeks can do to one’s confidence. After struggling out of the gate, ya boy is BACK in a big way with a 10-1-1 mark over the last two weeks. That's the kind of positive vibes we’ve been looking for! We have this motto here in Philly, Trust the Process and that’s what we do here with BTD and FFD Podcast...we believe in our system and we get results (sometimes they just take a little longer). All I know is that I am hotter than Scarlett Johansson right now and I’m telling you it’s okay to stop and stare a little bit longer, take it in. My one hope is that I have the same staying power as ScarJo and continue to age like a fine wine. Well, that last one may not be the case but the picks continue to get better over time and that’s good enough for me. Without much further ado, let's get into Week 7 and maybe, just maybe we win every bet.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots UNDER 43:
If you are an avid follower of Betting the Diagonal (if you’re not, what the Hell are you waiting for), you’d know that one of the main talking points the boys have driven home was when the Patriots and Jets play, we hammer the under. In their previous 11 matchups against the Patriots, the Jets have scored more than 17 points just once. For them to have any chance, the Jets are going to need to score more than 17 which I do not see them doing. The Jets have the league’s worst offense, averaging just 13.4 points per game while the Patriots are only putting up a little more than a touchdown per game at 20.8 points per game. Both of these teams rookie Quarterbacks are experiencing growing pains and at this time do not have the ability or weapons that will allow them to get into a shootout style of a game. Zach Wilson has nine interceptions while Mac Jones has six meaning this should end up a defensive slugfest with drives ending due to turnover. So far this season, only two of New York’s games have gone over the point total. New England’s games have hit the over twice this season. New England and its opponents have scored a combined total of more than 43 points twice this season (over six games). The under has hit in 10 of the last 14 games for the Patriots. If you like a your football game to be like watching grass grow, this game is for you.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12.5 vs Chicago Bears:
It’s a tried and true formula…you do not bet against Tom Brady when it isn't a primetime football game. Tampa comes into this game at home much more rested following a Thursday night win last week against the Eagles and will be able to push the tempo thanks to this. At home, the Bucs are averaging 41.3 points per game.With Playoff Lenny showing up early in the season, the Bucs can rely on a balanced offense to take advantage of a slow Chicago defense who was picked apart by another Hall of Fame Quarterback last week. Chicago has had glimpses of success thus far this season but when they go up against the elite teams such as the Rams, the Browns, and their rival Packers they have been outscored by a total of 84-34. For the Bucs. a team averaging 32.5 points per game, they should have no problem moving the ball thanks to their myriad of weapons. The Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Ride the champs to an easy win here as they tame the Bears handily.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans OVER 57.5:
How about that Titans/Bills game the other night...woah, that was fun. The Titans got a colossal win against the cream of the AFC crop and are right back in the thick of the playoff picture. It doesn’t get any easier this week as the reigning AFC champs come to the land of country music and look ready for a honkytonk showdown. While Julio Jones is banged up again, we saw the reemergence of AJ Brown last week which will make this Titan offense even more deadly as it does not need to rely on Derrick Henry for all of their yards. That doesn’t mean the Titans will go away from the King. Kansas City’s run defense could make this game interesting as Derrick Henry should go off once again but I am confident that the far superior Quarterback play of Patrick Mahomes will lead to at least 30 points for the Chiefs against a suspect Tennessee defense. Both defenses rank in the bottom 10 with over 26 points per game allowed, while both offenses rank in the top 10 with over 27 points per game scored which tells me this game is set to be a shootout. The Chiefs are scoring almost 31 points per game, while not playing to their usual standard. The offense has caught every unlucky bounce in the world with constant turnovers, particularly in the red zone yet still this team is dropping 30 every week. The Kansas City offensive line will be the difference as they are much improved and will be able to provide Mahomes a clean pocket thanks in part to an anemic pass rush of the Titans. The over has hit in 12 of the last 18 home games for the Titans. At the end of the day, both of these teams may need to wander over to Tootsies for some brews and music to recoup from this track meet.
Green Bay Packers -7.5 vs. Washington Football Team:
Coming into the season, everyone expected Washington to have a stellar defense. Well Washington’s pass defense is allowing 317.3 passing yards per game, which is dead-last in the NFL. They have also allowed 16 touchdown passes in the first six games and are averaging 31 points per game against, both numbers are good for dead-last in the NFL. Well, after Week 1 where everyone was panicking once again, Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense have been firing on all cylinders and should have no trouble against this disappointing Washington defense. Conversely, Washington's anemic offense has sputtered over the past couple of weeks and could struggle to score behind Taylor Heinecke in the frozen tundra. Mr. Discount Double Check himself is averaging 251.5 passing yards through two home games while also throwing for six touchdowns and no picks at home. His main man Davante Adams has recorded 14 receptions and 185 yards receiving on 20 targets in those two same games and now they get to attack the weakest secondary around so expect big numbers. Star Running Back Anthonio Gibson is dinged up with a calf injury, but if he does play, he’ll struggle against a strong Packers defense that has allowed just 85 rushing yards per contest in its first two home games. Green Bay is also allowing only 206.5 passing yards per game and has already recorded six picks and 14 sacks. Washington is 1-5 against the spread this season while Green Bay is 5-1 against the spread this season.
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals:
This pick has caused a lot of turmoil between the Betting the Diagonal boys as they are on the opposite side of this game. Well if you’re reading this, you want to be on the right side so you're going to tail my pick here. For as much of a fan I am NOT of Lamar Jackson, I cannot deny he has been playing well. Jackson is completing a career-best 67.5 percent of his pass attempts for 1,686 yards and nine touchdowns while also carrying the ball 64 times for 392 yards and two rushing touchdowns. I can’t deny results and you should not either. The Ravens are looking like one of the elites once again and will be defending their home turf against an upstart divisional rival who they've dominated over the last few seasons. While this Bengal roster is playing well and improved, one cannot forget that last season, the two teams met twice and the Ravens outscored their AFC North rivals 65-6 in those games. Yes, this is a new year and the Bengals have played well to the tune of a 4-2 record but have not played very many strong teams, with wins against the winless Lions and the one win against the Jaguars. Another one of their four wins came against a two win Viking team. Baltimore is 5-0 straight up versus Cincinnati, and they are 4-1 straight up against the Bengals at home. Also, the Ravens are 5-1 against the spread in their past six home contests. The Ravens are also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games. Give me the Ravens to cover the touchdown spread at home and really display their dominance over the AFC North once again.
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants UNDER 43:
This is the closest thing to a similar game to the Jets/Patriots game this week. While those two teams have rookie Quarterbacks and get a pass, the Panthers and Giants have young veteran Quarterbacks who just cannot get the job done. Both Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold have glaring deficiencies in their games that will limit not only them but their teams long term successes as well. For Carolina, when CMC went out, the Panthers ran away from the running game to the tune of nearly 64% of their plays being passing plays behind poor Quarterback play. Former Temple and Baylor Coach Matt Rhule has gone out and stated that they will be more run heavy this upcoming week which is music to under bettors ears as this will slow down the pace of the game and make this a defensive struggle. The Giants continue to be the walking wounded and while recently concussed Quarterback Daniel Jones is back under center, he now loses his starting Left Tackle Andrew Thomas to injury. Even with the healthy players, the Giants are still averaging only 19 points per game this season and are going up against a defense that is only giving up 20.2 points per game. The under is 6-1 in Panthers last seven games as a road favorite and the under is 6-0-1 in the Giants last 7 home games and is 9-2-1 in Giants last 12 games following a ATS loss. Another game that you’d rather watch paint dry is in store but take advantage of the spot and back the under.
Last Week Record: 5-1-0
Season Record: 31-33-1
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