Goddamn, it feels good to be on the winning side of things once again! If it wasn’t for those assholes from Indy choking away a game to the overrated Ravens, a perfect 6-0 week was in the cards from me. No worries though, we move on and keep the momentum rolling. Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL season and our 6th edition of this year's Six Pack. The libations were flowing last week just like the wins until that last IPA stumbled us. Last week was huge for our followers here and I don't know about you, but I want to keep the vibes high and ride this wave baby. So as my guy Gary Busey famously said, with a little twist...UTAH... GET ME SIX!!! Let’s ride!
Green Bay Packers -5.5 vs. Chicago Bears:
Poor Chicago. They are banged up, have a terrible head coach, and have to go up against their arch rival Aaron Rodgers, a Hall of Famer who has feasted on his NFC division rivals all throughout the course of his 17 year career, going 21-4 straight up against them. Justin Fields is banged up with a knee injury and the Bears will be without both David Montgomery and Damien Williams. These injuries will force Fields to have to make more plays which he has not had the time to do due to a weak offensive line. The Packers aren’t the healthiest team in the world either but they have Rodgers and a good, nay great Quarterback can mask even the most banged up roster. The Packers have owned the Bears for the longest time and that will continue this week. The Cheeseheads are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 meetings against the Bears in Chicago and also are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. On the other side of the field, the Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC North and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Los Angeles Chargers/Baltimore Ravens OVER 51:
If you watched Monday night's Ravens/Colts game you will have noticed two things: the Ravens are struggling to run the ball (to the tune of 3.9 yards per carry in their last three games) and Lamar did a nice job for once passing the ball and pushing the offense down the field. These two teams have had no issue scoring thus far this season, with Baltimore averaging 27.3 points per game and the Chargers averaging 28.4 points per game. Both of these teams are coming off high scoring affairs, where the Ravens scored 31 points and the Chargers scored 47. Both of these receiving corps have been coming along nicely with Justin Herbert finding great chemistry with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams while Lamar has been seeing the likes of Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews soar for them of late. The over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 road games and is 6-2 in the last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 home games and is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games as a home favorite.
Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. New England Patriots:
I hate the Cowboys with every fiber in my body. But, I go where the money takes me and that leads me down the road to Arlington, Texas. Dallas is the last perfect record team ATS this season at 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 10.6 points per game. Dallas’s weapons on offense are unmatched and for a New England defense that is not all that strong, they will struggle significantly in stopping the firepower led by MVP candidate Dak Prescott. The duo of Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliot lead a rushing attack that is averaging 172.8 yards per game, good for number two in the NFL while New England is a middle of the pack rush defense. The much maligned Cowboys defense leads the league in 10 interceptions and has done a great job of giving Dallas a short field to work with. The Patriots are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
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Arizona Cardinals +3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns and OVER 49:
The Cardinals once again are at their best in the early-season where during the first seven weeks of the 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons, the Cardinals are 14-5 against the spread. Kyler Murray is playing MVP level football right now, and the Cardinals are a rather healthy team. Beating the Rams two weeks ago was huge for this team as it showed them just how good they are and gave them the confidence to go on the road in a tough matchup and beat very good teams. The Browns are No. 1 in rushing yards this season with 938 yards so far, but similar to a week ago, it’s going to be the passing game that could hold them back as they’re the 8th-worst in the league. The Browns have lost both of their games to elite offenses in high scoring games against the Chiefs and the Chargers but shut down weak offenses like Houston, Chicago and Minnesota. Really makes you wonder how good the Browns defense really is. This game gives you the feel of the Chargers/Browns shoot out of last week where the two explosive offenses combined for 89 points. The Cardinals are averaging 31.4 points per game while Cleveland is averaging 28.4 points per game this season. Cleveland is 2-5 against the spread in the Browns’ last seven home games. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in the early going this season.
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Buffalo Bills/Tennessee Titans OVER 54:
The Titans offense is finally getting healthier as A.J. Brown played last week and Julio Jones is tracking to return as well from a hamstring injury which will aid an offense that has relied even more so on the running efforts of Derrick Henry in the last few weeks. On the other side, the Bills offense is clicking on all cylinders right now having scored 35 or more points in the past four games. Assisting in this is the emergence of tight end Dawson Knox and the team looking like it has settled on Zach Moss as the lead back going forward. Buffalo scores 34.4 points per game (tops in the NFL), and will be up against a Tennessee defense which is ninth-worst in the league (26.0 ppg). The Titans offense while undermanned has still performed admirably, averaging 26.4 points per game which is good for 10th best in the league. In Buffalo’s six games this season the total has gone over the number of 54 three times.
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