Welcome back my favorite people. Damn, it’s Week 3 already. Before we know it, we will be looking at playoff brackets and seeing who is in the race for the first overall pick but let's worry about that later and focus on the present. Hopefully you all had a great week one, whether it be your team winning or you winning quite a few of your bets. Yours truly...he did neither. Big yikes if you ask me. That’s okay though. The NFL is a long season and there are plenty of more wins on the board.
Week Two had some amazing games and amazing individual efforts. Let's start with the King himself single handedly leading the Titans back from the grips of defeat with 182 rushing yards and three huge touchdowns late in the game. Everyone's favorite Cooper went OFF again for nine receptions, 163 yards receiving and two touchdowns, Matt Stafford sure must be loving life on the West Coast now. Our early season MVP front runner Kyler Murray went nuts once again, passing for an even 400 yards and three touchdowns while leading his team to a one point win out in the desert. The game of the week had to be Baltimore stealing a win from the dominant Chiefs behind some bold play calling by John Harbaugh and some clutch running and throwing by Lamar Jackson. This last week won't be forgotten anytime soon but here's hoping Week 3 can provide similar or bigger fireworks on the field and in your bank account.
Arizona Cardinals O3.5 Touchdowns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1:00 PM in Jacksonville
Arizona is currently an offensive juggernaut led by early MVP candidate Kyler Murray. Thus far early in the year, the Cardinals are putting up 36 points per game and will be playing against the worst defense that have been lined up against in the early going. Conversely, Jacksonville is giving up 30 points per game thus far against significantly weaker offenses than the one they'll see in Arizona. The Jaguar defense has had a real tough go early on during the Urban Meyer era and is giving up 423.5 yards per game thus far, with 295.5 of those yards coming through the air each game; the Cardinals specialty. For Kyler to win the MVP, he will need to put up some monster performances to sway voters who will defer to Mahomes or Brady so expect Murray to show out with a three plus touchdown game through the air and at least one touchdown on the ground.
Kansas City Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers O55 points: 1:00 PM in Kansas City
Last week's game between the Cowboys and Chargers was certainly a let down for over betters like yours truly but don't let the final score confuse you. The Bolts D gave up 25 first downs and only was able to sack Dak Prescott two times over the course of the game. Additionally, Dallas was putting up over seven yards a play on LA and stifled themselves in the red zone consistently. The Chiefs came back home looking to avenge a brutal loss to Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, but had no issues until late moving the ball on the vaunted Ravens defense. Tyreek Hill will not be held to just three catches again and the Chargers are giving up 10.8 yards per reception to Tight Ends in the early going so expect Travis Kelce to cook. Kansas City is 13-8 O/U as the home team since 2019 and with a little help from Justin Herbert and the Charger offense, make that 14-8 O/U.
Copyright: Kansas City Star
Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings O55.5 points: 4:25 PM in Minnesota
These two defensive head coaches must be dying inside watching their teams score a ton of points but also give up a ton of points. Few teams can match what the Seahawks have on offense led by Russel Wilson and his elite supporting cast of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson. The Viking defense is still a mess and does not have the talent to prevent big plays, something they have struggled with mightily in the early going.For Minnesota, Dalvin Cook and company get to take on a Seahawk D that got smoked by Derrick Henry last week to the tune of 182 yards on the ground. The two biggest weaknesses that these teams have on defense happen to be the strength of the opposing offense, so look for Seattle to attack Minny through the air at will and the Vikings to try and ground and pound the Hawks to death. In their last two head to head matchups, these teams have reached a total of 53 points and 67 points so lets hammer the over and watch a shootout.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5/O55 vs. Los Angeles Rams: 4:25 PM in Los Angeles:
The Bucs opened up as a one point underdog and have quickly shifted over to the favorite as Vegas has realized that even on the road, Tompa Bay is still significantly better than every other team out there. Tampa was only 4-4 ATS last season as a road favorite but their margin of victory was 14.9 points per game. While the Rams have a phenomenal defense, they may not have the bodies to match up against a newly rejuvenated Gronk as Jalen Ramsey will need to shadow one of the Bucs big three wide outs over the course of the game. Both of these teams are averaging over 30 points per game (39.5 for Tampa and 30.5 for LA) and have defenses that, while good, can be attacked and will be in what is expected to be a shoot out. While this will be the toughest game of the early going for the defending champs, you just can't bet against a team with this much talent or Tom Brady when laying less than a field goal. Oh, and the Rams are 0-7-1 ATS as a home underdog in their last 8 games as such.
Green Bay Packers +3.5 vs San Francisco 49ers: 8:20 PM in San Francisco
This may be the last time all season you get Green Bay getting points as it seems like Vegas isn't quite sold on their offensive explosion against the likes of the Detroit Lions last week. Well, as Aaron Rodgers once said…”R.E.L.A.X. relax.” The duel Aaron’s were able to put up big numbers last week as Matt LaFleur helped Rodgers by creating a game plan to attack Detroit's biggest weaknesses, the underneath passing game. This has the makings of Green Bay going on a run after being disrespected and even more, the makings of an Aaron Rodgers explosion. The 49ers are starting to see a rash of injuries again as their backfield has few legs remaining and they have not been able to really get it going on offense and are also relying on Josh Norman to be their number one cornerback. The 49er O was only able to put up 17 points against the Eagles last week and if they struggle again, the Packers are much more capable of putting up big points against. Over the last two seasons, the Packers have been the underdog seven times, and they have not only won straight up 5-2 times but also are 5-2 ATS.
Copyright: USA Today
Baltimore Ravens/Detroit Lions O49.5 points: 1:00 PM in Detroit
If you were fortunate enough to watch Sunday Night Football last week, you got to see what Lamar Jackson at his best is capable of. He single handedly stole that game from Kansas City with his legs and timely throws that actually went to his receivers. After blowing the Week 1 matchup with Vegas, Baltimore seemed to put it together and match blow for blow with the Chiefs as Jackson’s confidence rose with each passing play. In the early going, Baltimore is putting up 31.5 points per game and now takes on the weakest defense of the season to date. On the opposite side, Detroit has been sneakily putting up points as they have been playing catchup for the majority of their games. This year, the mighty Lions have put up 25 points per game. The Baltimore defense is a bit leaky right now with so many injuries so Detroit, while they likely won't win the game should be able to move the ball and get into the endzone a couple of times.
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