All those in favor of some Fall football say, “Aye.” That’s right, I heard you out there. Welcome back Degenerates to another installment of the best six pack you will indulge in this weekend. Six pack of picks that is. I can't speak ill on the sweet nectar that is alcohol. Luckily you don't have to choose, I highly recommend indulging in some IPA’s this weekend while you throw your feet up and watch your favorite team hopefully pull out a big week four win. Damn...week four already...wild.
Before we take a moment to look forward to games in week four, let’s appreciate what was in week three. America’s least favorite team put a Dallas sized beating on my Philly scumbags which has just been brutal to deal with all week. All those cockroach Cowboy fans are crawling out around the country so be warned if they beat your team. The Rams pulled off the upset over the defending champs at home as TB12 lost for only the fifth time in his career when throwing for over 400 yards. Next up for the Bucs and Brady, a return trip to New England where Tommy boy put Patriot football on the map. That game is going to be amazing, but there are 15 other games that many of you will be personally invested in so, without much further ado, lets get into some of those.
Tennessee Titans -6 vs. New York Jets:
With AJ Brown and Julio Jones both ruled out for this game, the Titans will need to lean even more on Derrick Henry who should have no problem running against the Jets defense, as they are averaging 159.3 yards per game on the ground. What was supposed to be the strongest facet of the Jets game has let them down time after time this season and will set the Jets behind right from the jump and the offense won’t be able to do much to help. The Zach Wilson led offense have not been able to have much success thus far and are leading the league in turnovers, which should allow the Titans to have extra possessions and work with shorter fields, which plays perfectly into their running/play action passing attack they love to run. To me, this game very much feels like the Bills/Dolphins game two weeks ago where the Bills were only a 6.5 point favorite and ended up putting up 35 against Miami in a big win (for those who remember, a pick that I was all over and stated the Bills would cruise to a victory). Not much is going right in New York right now and bettors have noticed. The Jets are 0-3 ATS this season.Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Unfortunately for gang green, the losing will continue this week.
Copyright: SB Nation
Buffalo Bills/Houston Texans O47:
The Bills offense has found it, and is clicking on all cylinders now after a lackluster week one, coming off of point totals of 43 and 35 in their last two games against teams with arguably better defenses than that of the Houston Texans. The key to this resurgence, the Bills have finally started to get Zach Moss and Devin Singletary more involved in the ground game, opening up the second level of defenses allowing Josh Allen to do what he does best, throw bombs. Buffalo shouldn't have a problem getting theirs in this game. Hell, they might put up 47 on their own. But, while Houston is the inferior team, they still have been able to put up garbage points to the tune of 22.3 ppg this season so far. Thus far this season, the over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games overall. On the other side of the field, the over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games following an ATS win and is 13-4-1 in Bills last 18 games following a straight up win. Let’s hope for some big plays on both sides and maybe you’ll win this play and your fantasy football game this week.
Copyright: USA Today
Minnesota Vikings ML vs. Cleveland Browns:
I love Minnesota in this spot this week. Cleveland’s wins this season have not been the most impressive, coming against the likes of Houston and Chicago all coming after they blew a big lead against Kansas City in the early going. While Jarvis Landry has been ruled out for the Browns, Cleveland could possibly be without their top draft pick, Greg Newsome as well, leaving one of the Vikings top receivers covered by a lesser caliber of cornerback. Minnesota is 1-2 but might be the best 1-2 team in the league, with two bad/tough losses on their record but have been playing much more competitive and better than their record shows. The purple team has weapons on all fronts from the duo of Thielen/Jefferson to likely getting back a top back in the league in Dalvin Cook which will make life a living Hell for the Brownie defense. Some trends that I love with this game, the Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. For the home team, the Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog. I have a feeling we are in for quite a few SKOL chants from the Minnesota faithful as they look to even up their record this week.
Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals O54.5:
Two high powered offenses meet this week in a battle of the top teams in a competitive NFC West. Last year, in a Week 13 matchup, these two teams put on a show combining for 66 points...all this with MVP candidate Kyler Murray playing poorly. So far this season, these two teams are a combined 4-2 O/U thus far this season.What makes me love this matchup in terms of the over, both Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford are getting more and more comfortable with their weapons as the weeks go on. This is a battle for the division, meaning both teams will want to fire on all cylinders to show the NFC West runs through them. The defenses, while good, can still give up yards and points. The Rams in a winning effort last week against Tampa still gave up over 400 yards passing. The over is 5-0 in the Rams last 5 games overall while the over is also 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following an ATS win.
Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers:
The Steelers offense is in shambles coming off a lowly 10 point performance against Cincinnati, while the Green Bay offense is starting to find its groove after a nice win against the 49ers. Aaron Rodgers and company look to be resembling their high powered ways while the Steelers are headed in the opposite direction. The Steelers, who relied so heavily on a strong running game for years are averaging 3.2 yards per carry this year, forcing them to pass the pass which plays directly into the strength of the Packer defense...their secondary. What is also killing the Pittsburgh offense is their offensive line, a line that is coming off a game in which they allowed four sacks while the Packers line on the other side only gave up one last week. Pittsburgh’s shaky line led to Roethlisberger taking numerous big hits and a significant pectoral injury which will affect his ability to drive the ball down the field once again. On the defensive side, the Steelers do not have the bodies to match up with the trio of Tonyan, Adams, and Jones which should allow Rodgers to feast once again. The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite while the Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. Let’s ride with the cheeseheads to get the job done once again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 vs. New England Patriots:
And now the game we have all been waiting for, the Bucs going against the Patriots, or Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick While that is the primary storyline in this game, don’t forget the other ex-Patriots going up against the Patriots, specifically one rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski. Brady and the Bucs are coming off an embarrassing showing against the Rams, and will be looking to put on a show against his former team. That old team is still breaking in Mac Jones, the rookie first round pick who is playing in the shadow of Tom Brady and coming off his worst performance as a pro against New Orleans. You know who isn’t coming off a bad performance? That would be Tom Brady. Brady is coming off of 432 yards passing and will be facing a defense that's ranking is boosted due to facing the likes of Jameis Winston, Zach Wilson, and Tua Tagovailoa (passing attacks ranked 18th, 31st, and 32nd). The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. On the other side, the Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Expec the GOAT to put on a show and get his first career win over his longtime head coach and team.
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